Risk Sensitivity to Hazard Model Updates: Insights from the European Seismic Hazard Model

Synopsis

Chapter 1 (Athanasios Gkimprixis): How much has the Hazard model changed, and what are the implications for Risk estimates?

Seismic risk assessment plays a key role in managing earthquake impact, but frequent updates to hazard models create challenges in understanding how current risk estimates change. This seminar seeks answers to typical questions arising from various stakeholders when a new hazard model is released. To answer such questions, in the first part of the seminar, Athanasios Gkimprixis will present a simplified yet holistic framework for analysing seismic risk sensitivity to hazard variability, together with applications across Europe, leveraging the recent update of the European Seismic Hazard Model.

Chapter 2 (Laurentiu Danciu): Why do we need to update Hazard models?

Seismic hazard models are not static; they require periodic updates to remain relevant. With a typical lifecycle of 7-10 years, these models must incorporate newly acquired data, integrate evolving scientific understanding of earthquake processes, and adapt to new requirements in building codes and risk assessment. In the second part of the seminar, Laurentiu Danciu will present further insights into where the hazard changes derive from and why we need to update our models.

About the speaker

Dr Athanasios Gkimprixis is a Senior Risk Scientist at Renew Risk, specializing in risk modelling for renewable energy, building on his previous expertise as an Earthquake Catastrophe Model Developer and Seismic Vulnerability Expert at Aon. Before transitioning to the financial sector, he conducted research on seismic risk assessment for improved structural design and insurance, both as a PhD researcher at the University of Strathclyde and as a visiting researcher at UCL. In addition to his PhD, he holds two Master’s degrees, in Seismic Design of Structures and in Civil (Structural) Engineering, both from the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki.

Dr Laurentiu Danciu is a Senior Scientist at the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) of ETH Zürich, specializing in earthquake hazard and risk modeling. He has led the development of numerous national and regional seismic hazard models across Europe and the Middle East. Notably, he led the development of the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20), now the reference for seismic hazard in the region. ESHM20 marks a significant milestone for both the seismology and engineering communities, serving as a key input for risk assessment and contributing to the forthcoming update of European seismic design code. He also serves as General Secretary of the European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (EFEHR, www.efehr.org).

Registration

The event is open to all and is free to attend. Please join the meeting via Teams* by clicking on this link. No registration is required.

Further information

This online talk is organised by SECED Young Members. For further information, please contact Maria Liapopoulou (This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.).

* Microsoft Teams is freely available on all major platforms, including Windows, Linux, MacOS, Android and iOS. To download and install the software, follow this link. SECED is not sponsored by or otherwise affiliated with Microsoft, and we do not endorse any Microsoft products.