Retrospective Evaluation of Time-Dependent Earthquake Forecasting Models during the 2010-12 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence

The 2010 Mw 7.1 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake set off a complex and devastating earthquake cascade that has drastically increased expected seismic hazard over the coming years and decades in the Christchurch and surrounding Canterbury region (Gerstenberger et al. 2014). The sequence provides a wealth of new scientific data to study earthquake clustering and to evaluate the predictive skills of time-dependent forecasting models. To this end, the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is conducting a retrospective evaluation of fifteen short-term statistical, physics-based and hybrid models that were developed by groups in New Zealand, Europe and the US. Our results may eventually contribute to operational earthquake forecasting systems that seek to disseminate credible information about time-dependent seismic hazards and risks to the public.