Forensic Determination of Explosive Yield From Measurement of Infrastructure Damage

Experts in the field of explosion effects on structures use the severity of damage to infrastructure as a means of estimating the explosive yield from accidental or terrorist explosions. The uncertainty associated with these predictions of explosive yield is likely to be significant but is not normally quantified.

The author has developed a methodology for quantifying the uncertainty associated with the estimation of explosive yield for different types of infrastructure. This methodology uses an engineering model of the component of infrastructure, quantifies the airblast loading, the model parameter errors and the model prediction error and combines this with a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the statistical distribution of explosive yield that caused the observed damage.